Marché mondial de l'efficacité énergétique : Etude de l'IEA
L'IEA, Agence Internationale de l'Energie, vient de publier son rapport sur le marché mondial de l'efficacité énergétique.
Key findings include the following :
- Global energy intensity improved in 2015, but the rate of progress needs to accelerate much more: global energy intensity improved by 1.8% in 2015 (surpassing the 1.5% gain seen in 2014). The IEA analysis shows that annual energy intensity improvements need to rise to at least 2.6% in a trajectory consistent with our climate goals.
- 2015 saw a shift to emerging economies as drivers of the gobal intensity gains: Energy intensity did not decline uniformly across the globe. Gains were higher in emerging and developing countries (2.5%) than in industrialised countries (at 2%). In a 2°C pathway, average annual intensity improvements between now and 2030 are 3.7% in Non-OECD countries as compared with 2.2% for OECD countries.
- Energy efficiency is driving down intensity and energy demand: Energy efficienyc levels in IEA member countries improved on average by 14% between 2000 and 2015 (generating enegry savings of 450Mio toe in 2015, reducing total energy expenditure by 540 billion US Dollar in 2015, mostly in buildings and industry). While GDP grew by 2% in IEA countries, efficiency gains led to flattening of growth in primary energy demand.
- China is driving global energy efficiency progress: Energy intensity in the PR of China improved by 5.6% in 2015, primary energy demand increased by 0.9%, the lowest growth rate since 1997 while the Chinese economy grew by 6.9%. China’s progress on energy efficiency is now at a scale where it is making a significant mark on global energy markets.
- Public policy has been the key driver of efficiency improvements, but much more is possible and much more is needed: Introduced this year, the IEA Energy Efficiency Policy Progress Index (EPPI) tracks mandatory policies by improving their coverage and the strengthening of their performance levels. The EPPI shows growth of 7% in the last decade. Progress has been fastest in residential buildings, where expansion of building energy codes and tightening of minimum energy performance standards on heating and cooling equipment are driving improvements. Improving energy efficiency produces multiple savings, such as enhanced energy security and improved air quality. IEA analysis shows that policies to increase energy efficiency and decarbonise energy supply will be the major drivers for global reduction in emissions of key local air pollutants between now and 2040.
- Policy has also protected the efficiency market from declining energy prices: Lower energy prices are a cause of concern as they reduce the returns on energy efficiency investments. However, to date, consumer prices have remained relatively steady or fallen much less than headline prices for energy commodities. Taxes embedded in retail fuel proces have limited the end-user proce drop to a range of 38% (in the US) to 16% (in Germany). Fuel economy standards are driving efficiency gains in new vehicles. China became the world’s largest new passenger vehicle market in 2015, with sales surpassing those in the US. In the residential sector, energy efficiency investments in buildings in OECD countries increased by 9% in 2015. Efficiency actions in buildings appear to be driven less by price and more by the implementation of policy instruments such as MEPS.
- The energy efficiency market is growing: The IEA estimates that global investment in energy efficiency was 221bn USD in 2015, an increase of 6% from 2014. Investment growth was strongest in the buildings sector, at 9%, with the US making up close to a quarter of all efficiency investments in the sector. China has emerged as the largest energy efficient vehicle market, comprising 41% of efficient vehicle investment worldwide. There is evidence that the energy efficiency market will grow in the coming years. Growth in remote monitoring, control and data analytics are enabling new business models and service solutions. Finance for dedicated energy efficiency products and services is also expanding.
The IEA concludes that :
- The report “demonstrates the central role of policy in driving energy efficiency”, the biggest gains being linked to mandatory policy instruments such as MEPS
- Government policies are vital to curbing the risk that lower energy prices could undermine energy efficiency efforts.
- Energy efficiency is the only energy resource possessed by all countries – harnessing the potential of energy efficiency is ket to ransitioning to a sustable and secure energy system that generates prosperity for our world”